WASHINGTON — Under three weeks before Election Day, independents, rural Americans and a growing share of Republicans are turning gloomy about the economy, a new national survey shows.
The Harris Poll survey found that 65% of independents believe economic conditions are worsening, compared with 48% who felt that way in September 2024. Among Republicans, only 28% now say things are improving, down from 49% in February 2026 and 39% in February 2025.
Three in four Americans said they worry about a recession, and 61% said they believe one has already begun, although the economy is not in a recession under the usual definition. Two-thirds named gas and grocery prices as their top issues heading into November, ahead of living costs, health care and foreign affairs.
Those concerns follow fresh inflation data showing consumer prices rose at a 3.7% annual rate last month, the highest reading ahead of a midterm since 1990 if the pandemic years are set aside. Gasoline remains costly as well: the national average fell 5 cents to $4.36 a gallon in early October, still a record for the autumn season. It is the first year the average has topped $4 in October, as crude oil climbed back over $90 a barrel and California drivers paid the most at $6.34 a gallon, while Ohio was cheapest at $3.71.
Nearly every Republican polled, 96%, agreed the country faces an affordability crisis, but voters split on who can fix it. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say their own party has an answer, 71% to 59%, while half of independents said no party has a fix.
Rural respondents were also more likely to say neither party has a solution, and four in 10 described a precarious, survival-style existence in which a single unexpected bill could sink their finances. The online survey of 3,998 adults was conducted from Sept. 24 to Oct. 3.
